Seismic Roulette

Vladimir G. Kossobokov
Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IEPT RAS), Russia

Nowadays, in a Big Data World, Science can disclose Natural Hazards, assess Risks, and deliver the state-of-the-art Knowledge of looming disaster in advance catastrophes along with useful Recommendations on the level of risks for decision making in regard to engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. Science cannot remove, yet, people’s favor for illusion regarding reality, as well as political denial, ignorance, and negligence among decision-makers. The general conclusion is confirmed by application and testing against earthquake Reality.

Regretfully, most, if not all, of earthquake prediction claims are “invented” due to very small, if any, sample of clearly defined evidence. The necessity and possibility of applying simple tools of Earthquake Prediction Strategies – Error Diagram and Seismic Roulette null-hypothesis as a metric of the alerted space – are evident. Seismic Roulette is not perfect! Therefore, seismic hazard assessment and earthquake prediction claims can be useful for reducing future impacts from disastrous earthquakes, if reliable, but not necessarily perfect.