Using seismicity parameters for forecasting earthquakes: State-of-the-art and future directions

Stefan Wiemer
Swiss Seismological Service ETH Zurich, Switzerland

Past seismicity is the key to forecasting the future. However, despite decades of research on how to best use seismicity observations for long- medium- and short-term forecasting, there is limited consensus on the optimal strategies to extract and exploit seismicity parameters. The key challenges are: 1) Seismicity parameters vary as a function of space, time and magnitude range, and unraveling predictive patterns is challenging; 2) The data completeness and data quality available is likewise highly variable and typically spans only a fraction of a seismic cycle; 3) The underlaying physical mechanisms are at best partially understood and cannot be readily modelled. This talk will review some of the challenges we are facing as a community when trying to enhance probabilistic seismic hazard assessment as well as operational earthquake forecasting. I will also show promising case studies and recent advances from around the world that suggest future directions in the never-ending quest to enhance our earthquake forecasting abilities.